Crop Dusting

For three weeks in April, crop dusters worked the wheat fields from 7:00 A.M. until nearly 8:00 P.M. They were spraying for wheat rust, a fungus that can destroy 20% of the crop, more or less. They fly by computer with all of the GPS and navigational tools than I cannot comprehend. In the old days people would be on the ground to serve as markers. After the crop duster made a pass the marker would run to the next section of the field to mark the spot for the next fly over. Often the marker would get a good dousing of whatever herbicide or fungicide was laid down. I have met some of these people, several of whom are quite aged, and I am amazed they are still with us. This spring has been so moderate that harvesting wheat could begin in late May. A farmer told me the other day that he had never harvested wheat so early. The wheat is just beginning to turn a golden color and the big worry is that the crop could be destroyed by a late killing frost, hail, or violent winds that would lay it down. There is great hope for this crop. Last year’s harvest was cut dramatically by dry conditions. But this year they are saying that harvest could yield as much as a hundred bushels of wheat per acre. I think the norm is somewhere between 60 and 80. Weather remains a deep concern. While we have had a few good rainfalls from time to time this spring it has not been consistent enough to give anyone a sense of ease. Since March 1 (through May 7, 2012) we have had 4.8 inches of rain at our house. Last year weather forecasters indicated that we were entering a 10 dry pattern. A friend of mine went down to Texas last week to haul hay and discovered it was already drying out faster than they could harvest it out of the field. A large round bale of hay cost me $40.00 last summer and I was really lucky. Some people were paying $120.00 per bale and had to haul it themselves. Feedlots in western Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas were packed with so many cows going to market you could not see the end of them. The entire horizon was a wall of cattle. Another problem with weather is insect control. With a mild winter many insects have already emerged in wild numbers. It is May and June bugs are swarming, not to mention moths and the inevitable return of grasshoppers. What has any of this got to do with you? Immediately consumers will a difference in the cost of food. Because of worldwide wheat shortages last year many countries experienced riots because there was not enough wheat to bake bread, still the common staple throughout most of the world. The long term is difficult for me to imagine. By 2050 the world’s population is expected to reach 9.2 billion. I have read that food production will need to increase by 80%. I am not inclined to see how we will manage that given all of the variables that I have mentioned above. We have not managed arable land in most places throughout the world and irrigation for what we need to grow is unimaginable. The hard truth is that we are already experiencing water shortages in many parts of the U.S., with water tables dropping every year. The temptation will be to try and pack more crops onto shrinking land and rely evermore on chemicals for fertilizers and pest and disease control. The idea of sustainable farming has not yet captured the attention of national policy makers. In the meantime I do not know of any of America’s family farms that do not rely on outside income to sustain their families. They are now the very tiny minority of America’s “agribusiness.” They are working hard against incomprehensible odds.